Initial State of Gap: The Risk Assessment Project has developed acute radiation risk models using a logistic scoring approach that is based on mathematical models of acute radiation syndromes developed by the Department of Defense coupled with solar particle event (SPE) predictive tools. There is a need to update these models with relative biological effectiveness (RBE) values specific to SPE-like protons and secondary radiations as new research data becomes available and to include additional models of SPE forecasting.
Acute Radiation Response Models will be modified to account for updates to RBE values as determined by research described in Gaps 1 and 2. SPE probabilistic modeling will be used as input to response models for overall risk assessment. Collaboration with other NASA Programs will facilitate probabilistic SPE modeling efforts in terms of probability of occurrence and time scale of accumulated dose. These models will be refined as necessary with updates to tools that can predict changes to the local space radiation environment including the probability of crew exposure levels and time to designated radiation shelter.